Muddy Waters Research | Due diligence-based equity research on Chinese companies

Block on CNBC’s Squawk Box Discussing Latest Short, eHealth Inc.

Block on CNBC’s Squawk Box discussing MW's latest short, eHealth Inc. Watch the full interview here… more

Doing the Work
Wall Street Won’t

Muddy Waters peels back the layers, often built up by seemingly respected but sycophantic law firms, auditors, and venal managements.

eHealth Inc.

EHTH: Booking Revenues Today that it Will Collect in 2029 (EHTH US)

We estimate that – prior to any tail revenue adjustment – it takes EHTH nine years to fully collect each dollar of Medicare Advantage revenue it books. With tail revenue adjustments, EHTH’s collection period seemingly extends to 20 years. EHTH’s future cash flows are therefore highly speculative.… more

GSX Techedu Inc.

GSX: Small Classes, Big Lies (GSX US)

On May 18th, we published our research on GSX in which we concluded that at least 70% of GSX’s purported users are fraudulent, and quite likely the real percentage of fake users is over 80%. We detailed three behaviors we were highly confident evidenced widespread bot usage: “Precise Joiners”, “GSX… more

GSX Techedu Inc.

MW is Short GSX Techedu Inc. (GSX US)

We are short GSX because we conclude that it is a near-total fraud. We conclude that at least ~70% of its users are fake, and we think it’s quite likely that at least ~80% of its users are fake. Our conclusions are based on GSX’s own user and attendance data files (i.e., this is n… more

Burford Capital Ltd.

Burford: Husbanding Liquidity, Wife-ing Financials (BUR LN)

Burford’s 2019 financials use reclassification, redefinition to inflate cash receipts, operating profit, and to otherwise present a misleading picture of the business. Cutting through the new bullshit, we adjust Burford’s cash receipts to show a YoY decline of -11.8%. We also adjust reported 2019 op… more

eHealth Inc.

MW is Short eHealth Inc. (EHTH US)

EHTH’s highly aggressive accounting masks what we believe is a significantly unprofitable business. Based on variable costs alone, we estimate that EHTH will lose approximately -$135 from each MA member it enrolled in 2019. If also including fixed costs, our per MA member loss estimate becomes -$4… more

NMC Health plc

NMC: Undisclosed Share Pledges Intensify Questions About True Debt Levels (NMC.LN)

Yesterday NMC issued the latest in a series of confusing disclosures about its controlling shareholders’ ownership and pledges when it disclosed that 19.0 million of its shares are potentially subject to undisclosed share pledges. We note that the FCA has announced it is probing these misstatements.… more

Burford Capital Ltd.

Burford: Horrible Second Half Results Validate our Thesis (BUR LN)

Burford’s abysmal second-half performance speaks to the company’s exaggerated marks, which are married to a flawed business model. Second half net realized gains were paltry, despite Burford seemingly having strong incentive to prove that it can monetize the investments on its ever-expanding balance… more

NMC Health plc

MW is Short NMC Health plc (NMC.LN)

We are short NMC Health plc. We have serious doubts about the company’s financial statements, including its asset values, cash balance, reported profits, and reported debt levels. At the worst of times, the company has invested in large assets at costs that we find too high to be plausible – inclu… more